منابع مشابه
Combining Forecasts: Why Decision Makers Neglect Correlation
We suggest a framework to analyse how individuals combine multiple sources of information to form predictions. We assume that individuals understand each source of information separately, but they are not certain about the correlation between them. We bound the ability of individuals to grasp such correlations by a notion of correlation capacity. We show that given this capacity there is a se...
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Scoring rules for eliciting expert predictions of random variables are usually developed assuming that experts derive utility only from the quality of their predictions (e.g., score awarded by the rule, or payoff in a prediction market). We study a more realistic setting in which (a) the principal is a decision maker and will take a decision based on the expert’s prediction; and (b) the expert ...
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Seasonal climate forecasts offer the possibility of helping people to change their decisions in response to scientific information. With an improving ability to model and predict the El Niño / Southern Oscillation, climatologists are able to issues seasonal forecasts that in some places are quite reliable. One such place, is Zimbabwe, lying in the semi-arid tropics of southern Africa, and with ...
متن کاملRandom Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts
Probabilistic population forecasts are useful because they describe uncertainty in a quantitatively useful way. One approach (that we call LT) uses historical data to estimate stochastic models (e.g., a time series model) of vital rates, and then makes forecasts. Another (we call it RS) began as a kind of randomized scenario: we consider its simplest variant, in which expert opinion is used to ...
متن کاملRaisin allergy in an 8 year old patient
Introduction Raisin allergy is uncommon despite worldwide cultivation of grapes, which belong to the Vitis vinifera species of the Vitaceae family. There have only been rare reports of anaphylaxis in adults related to the consumption of grapes, wine or other grape products, mostly in Europe [1-4]. In children, even fewer case reports to grape exist [5]. We report an 8-year-old patient who devel...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 1910
ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1910)38<1593:ffrm>2.0.co;2